Whilst the strategies will significantly vary by country, the reality has set in with most nations that the era of taking for granted fossil fuels is well and truly over.
The replacements, however, are exceptionally varied and require both different approaches and a wide range of equipment. Different alternative fuels have different storage and pressure relief needs.
Whilst many industries reliant on existing fuel are hoping for a more gradual transition, the reality is that big decisions need to be made as soon as possible in order to minimise any potential long-term consequences to human survival.
The two biggest issues in this regard are climate change and running out of fossil fuels, and in both cases, a major solution that has been touted is the widespread transition from fossil fuels to sustainable biofuels.
However, biofuels are just one of several sustainable alternative fuels available, and ultimately, the question will be less about whether biofuels are used but in which sectors they will be relied upon in the same way that we rely on fossil fuels today.
It is a complex issue, one with a potentially complex solution.
Will There Be Enough Biofuel To Meet Every Demand?
The fundamental question, and the reason why biofuel adoption has varied by country, is the simple matter of supply and the side effects of increasing supply.
The Belem 4X pledge is a voluntary agreement to quadruple sustainable fuels, including some kinds of biofuel, by 2035.
Even with this, however, there are fears that have been expressed, most loudly by Transport & Environment, that the total demand for fuel would be orders of magnitude higher than the amount that can be sourced sustainably in some regions.
T&E were specifically concerned that by 2035, the European demand for biofuels could be up to nine times the amount that can be sourced sustainably, without significant emissions and without damaging farmland.
The scale of the deficit will differ from nation to nation; countries such as Brazil and Indonesia benefit from having considerable supplies of biofuel-suitable crops, and the former has been producing bioethanol for over 50 years at this point.
However, other countries which lack domestic production in sufficient quantities to supply a significant proportion of the demand for fuel will need to either import raw materials or biofuel supplies from other countries, at both financial and ecological expense.
What Industries Will Rely On Biofuels The Most?
There are, thankfully, multiple options, and for many needs that were previously supplied through fossil fuels, there exist alternatives that produce zero emissions and use technology which already exists.
Railway electrification has been taking place for decades, buses are adapting various solutions from batteries to hybrid engines to even trolleybus wires, and many new cars are electric rather than petrol or even hybrid-powered.
Whilst there has been pushback from a complete ban on internal combustion engines, the prevailing winds appear to be moving in the direction of battery electric cars, which can be fueled using a wide variety of green electricity sources.
Ultimately, biofuels will primarily be used in fields which cannot be easily electrified, with three particular sectors likely to receive the majority of supplies of sustainable fuels.
Aviation
Due to the weight of batteries, long-haul battery-powered airliners are all but impossible with current technology, although there are some promising electric plane concepts.
Aviation demand is also expected to double by 2040, making it one of the few transportation sectors that is expected to significantly increase its carbon emissions unless something changes significantly.
That “something” is sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), a family of jet fuels that would replace current fossil fuels while producing low or zero net carbon emissions.
Aviation will be the likely first customer of biofuels once fossil fuels become economically unfeasible, because without some kind of fuel, most planes simply will not be able to take off.
Shipping
The world’s logistical supply chains are heavily reliant on heavy shipping, which itself relies on heavy fuel oil and marine gas oil to provide cost-effective transport.
This comes at the expense of extreme levels of pollution, but this also means that the greatest carbon reduction gains come through the shipping sector.
Several trials of cruise ships and cargo vessels have found promising results using popular biofuels such as hydrogenated vegetable oil (HVO), and it is likely that this will make the shipping sector a significant customer.
Long-Haul Trucking
Whilst electric and hydrogen fuel cell lorries have been designed and tested, the need for extremely long ranges in the thousands of miles makes electric lorries far less feasible for long-distance logistics.
